What the data says:
Transparent's take on the state of Airbnb at IPO
As the proportion of Airbnb's inventory made up of shared homes falls to a fifth, Airbnb has attempted to find new unique strings to its bow. Experience hosting is a more challenging business than accommodations; although Airbnb Experiences began in 2017, they average only 66 guest reviews per experience across their top 20 locations. In fact, at the end of 2019, 67% of all experiences worldwide had fewer than 10 reviews.
If Experience hosts cannot scale or systematize their operation in the same way, it stands to reason that Experiences hosts also churn at a higher rate.
Experiences are an almost exclusively urban phenomena. With limited exceptions (Bali, Havana), experiences occur in cities.
Experiences do not show professionalisation, yet. Unlike accommodation hosting, experiences are largely an individual-driven product. While the majority of Airbnb accommodation listings come from professional managers, individuals dominate Experiences supply. Only 2% of Experience hosts have more than 5 total experiences. Experiences are a labor-dependent operation, with diseconomies of scale, meaning that Experiences will grow more slowly. There is potential though, with the average revenue potential for each experience run $615 in the US; the nation where experiences are most established.
Announced at its 10-year anniversary event in 2018, Airbnb Plus sought to reach a broader audience. With Plus, Airbnb developed a brand standard, documented in a 100-point checklist covering amenities, cleanliness, and an Airbnb-approved aesthetic. Like hotel brands, hosts would be vetted for their adherence to these standards. Just as Marriott loyalists know what to expect in a Courtyard, travelers could trust the quality and consistency of these listings.
Two years later, the program has yet to achieve scale. Against a goal of 75,000 listings by year end 2018, the program now has about 20,000 listings. Plus listings account for only 0.6% of US supply in 2020.
As the decline in booking demand hit, Airbnb retained its booked nights best, going from bottom of the pile year on year, to top. The numbers are not good, but they show something positive for Airbnb, who have maintained their dominance in booked trips throughout 2020 also.
And COVID has been rocket fuel for the trend of using short term rental inventory for long term stays. The average length of stay for an Airbnb booking has increased by 50% since April 2020, and other short term rental platforms have shown increases to lesser degrees.
Driven by greater professional flexibility and the promise of living like a local anywhere in the world, long term stays are poised to drive growth into the future.
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