What the data says:
Transparent's take on the state of Airbnb at IPO

November 2020

Airbnb’s IPO marks a milestone in the travel industry and consumer internet as a whole. By redefining traveler expectations and establishing a new type of lodging, Airbnb built the second most valuable travel company in the world in just a decade. Their example as a “sharing economy” company catalyzed a generation of venture-backed companies.

For us at Transparent, Airbnb serve as a lodestar. Our mission is to establish the data source of record for short term rentals, so making sense of their business has been a motivation over the past five years. Now, as public market investors consider investing in Airbnb, we want to share observations on key questions facing the company.

While the precise alchemy of Airbnb’s brand is a mystery, Airbnb’s supply and its host community is surely a huge ingredient.

Airbnb defined the “sharing economy.” Airbnb taught travelers how a transgression - going into a stranger’s house - could unlock an amazing experience. Instead of settling for a cookie-cutter hotel in a sterile tourist district, travelers could experience real life in any neighborhood, guided by welcoming local hosts. Moveover, these Airbnbs were 30% cheaper than a hotel and came equipped with better space (e.g. living rooms and bedrooms) and amenities (e.g. kitchens, washer / dryers).

For many years, this experience was available exclusively on Airbnb. Airbnb hosts effectively operated as Airbnb franchisees. Airbnb served as their sole source of demand. Airbnb provided the tools, software and training to run their business. And these suppliers self-identified as Airbnb hosts.

Over time, the composition of Airbnb hosts evolved. A generation of hospitality entrepreneurs identified the arbitrage between long-term residential leases and the revenue from Airbnb rentals. These operators rapidly increased the stock of professionally managed inventory. They also attracted capital; over the past decade $2B was invested in short term rental property managers.

Professional operators viewed themselves in different terms than the original Airbnb hosts. Instead of identifying as “Airbnb Hosts” with a quirky, personal experience, they built their own hospitality brands (e.g. Sonder, Vacasa), established direct relationships with consumers, and defined a standard, consistent hospitality experience. Rather than relying on Airbnb software, they developed their own systems. And unlike legacy Airbnb hosts, they sought to maximize revenue by distributing inventory as widely as possible.

These “Airbnbs” were not just available on Airbnb, they also appeared on Google Hotel Finder, Booking.com, Expedia, not to mention their own websites. For consumers, stays with these hosts have important differences - instant booking (but at the expense of personal interactions with hosts), consistent furnishing and standards (but a more generic, hotel-like environment). Professional managers raise the floor, reducing the frequency of Airbnb horror stories; professional managers also lower the ceiling, eliminating transcendent moments that establish the brand.

So who exactly are Airbnb hosts today? And how do traveler experiences vary across different kinds of hosts? To address these questions, we’ve compiled the following observations:

Without question, Airbnb has built a leading brand of our time. Capturing the hearts of consumers requires a vision, not just a business model, and travelers around the world bought into Airbnb’s invitation to “belong anywhere.”

Brand matters in the travel industry thanks to Google’s stranglehold over search. A huge proportion of travel spend begins with search, and this fact makes Google the most valuable player in the travel industry. In 2017, when Expedia and Booking spent $7.2B on Google advertising, Skift valued Google’s travel business at $100B. By 2019, their spend had grown 50% and exceeded $11B. More telling, Expedia and Booking’s spend increased even as their CEOs made reducing dependence on Google a strategic imperative.

Airbnb stands alone as the one travel company that has not relied on Google. Two-thirds of its visitors come directly to Airbnb, a dramatically higher share than the rest of the industry. The power of these consumer relationships was illustrated in Airbnb’s COVID response. When bookings collapsed, Airbnb slashed marketing spend. Yet despite eliminating this budget, Airbnb traffic was largely unchanged. Instead, customers that previously came through paid campaigns instead came directly to Airbnb.

But while Airbnb’s brand has carried the company to this pinnacle of success, how powerful a growth engine will this continue to provide? Will Airbnb continue to enjoy a unique brand position as it broadens its offering and faces more direct competition? To better understand Airbnb’s brand strength and demand mix, we’ve compiled the following analysis:

Airbnb has become synonymous with short term rentals. For years, Airbnb was the short term rental alternative to hotels, which the hotel industry demonstrated with endless lobbying efforts targeting Airbnb (none of which stopped Marriott, Hyatt, Accor and Choice from launching their own short term rental products).

Today Airbnb faces real competition in short term rentals from leading travel platforms. Expedia spent $4B to acquire VRBO and now includes this inventory as a core part of its lodging search. Booking has made short term rentals a focus, from commercials that champion “hotels, homes, and everything in between” to their CEO citing alternative accommodations as a “growth driver for years to come”.

These rivals compete for access to supply. While Airbnb enjoys a real advantage in total listings, listing on multiple platforms is a dominant distribution strategy for property managers. Listings distributed on every channel generate 31% more bookings per listing than those exclusive to Airbnb. It stands to reason that the cross-listing trend will continue as professional managers play a growing role.

Booking and Expedia also challenge Airbnb for consumer demand. Booking has made short term rentals a key element in their consumer marketing. At the same time that Airbnb withdrew from Google’s HotelFinder product, Booking recommitted to this channel. Thanks to these investments (and its position as the largest travel site in the world), Booking’s short term rental demand has grown quickly. Today, Booking generates ~70% of Airbnb’s stays in short term rentals, and Booking’s short term rental business has grown more quickly since the onset of COVID.

Competitive dynamics will play a key role in the development of the short term rental market for years to come. Will Airbnb continue to enjoy exclusive access to unique supply or will a growing percentage of hosts list on their competitors as well? When hosts lists on other channels, where will they put the lowest price, and will price variation encourage consumers to shop around? Will consumers continue to view Airbnb as a category of one when some form of short-term rental inventory is available on every distribution channel? To make sense of these competitive dynamics, we’ve pulled together the following research:

A hunger for innovation and growth has driven Airbnb since its inception. Not content with creating a new category of lodging, it has sought to redefine other aspects of travel and the Airbnb experience. The IPO provides a moment to revisit some of these initiatives.

Airbnb Experiences

Experiences are perhaps the most significant attempt to expand Airbnb’s offering. With Experiences, consumers can book unique local activities, in addition to places to stay. Because these Experiences are only available on Airbnb, they provide another way to differentiate the Airbnb brand as other OTAs begin listing short term rental inventory. And Experiences provide hosts with additional sources of income, further cementing their loyalty to the platform.

To better understand Experiences, we compiled the following analysis:

Long Term Stays

Nomadic Living - individuals who have given up a fixed address to move around the world - has become more commonplace thanks to Airbnb. Creative professionals with location flexibility could drop their leases and live and work in any part of the world.

Even prior to COVID, Airbnb recognized this use case. In August 2019, they acquired Urbandoor, an Airbnb-like marketplace serving extended trips, relocations and longer term stays. And in December 2019, they invested in corporate housing brand Zeus Living. The brand promise to “belong anywhere” opened the door to new ways of living.

And COVID has been rocket fuel for the trend of using short term rental inventory for long term stays. The average length of stay for an Airbnb booking has increased by 50% since April 2020, and other short term rental platforms have shown similar increases.

Driven by greater professional flexibility and the promise of living like a local anywhere in the world, long term stays are poised to drive growth into the future.

Airbnb Plus

Announced at its 10-year anniversary event in 2018, Airbnb Plus sought to reach a broader audience. With Plus, Airbnb developed a brand standard, documented in a 100-point checklist covering amenities (e.g. Wifi speed), cleanliness, and an Airbnb-approved aesthetic. Like hotel brands, hosts would be vetted for their adherence to these standards. Just as Marriott loyalists know what to expect in a Courtyard, travelers could trust the quality and consistency of these listings.

Two years later, the program has yet to achieve scale. Against a goal of 75,000 listings by year end 2018, the program now has about 20,000 listings.


As dedicated observers and advocates of the short term rental industry, we are thrilled to see Airbnb reach the IPO milestone and be valued at tens of billions of dollars by the public markets. The short term rental industry can no longer be dismissed as “alternative accommodations.”

With our mission to provide the data source of record for the short term rental industry, we are eager to track Airbnb’s progress and follow the evolution of these questions. If you are interested in learning more about the short term rental industry, we’d be happy to see how you might leverage our work.